CLIMATE CHANGE

 WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These shifts may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle.

Global climate change is not a problem for the future. Climate change caused by increased human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases is already having a wide-ranging impact on the environment: glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, river and lake ice is breaking up earlier, plant and animal geographic ranges are shifting, and plants and trees are blooming earlier.

"Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time."

 - by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Some changes (such as droughts, wildfires, and extreme rainfall) are occurring at a faster rate than previously estimated by scientists. Indeed, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body established to assess climate change science, modern humans have never seen the observed changes in our global climate before, and some of these changes are irreversible over the next hundreds to thousands of years.

Scientists are confident that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades, owing primarily to greenhouse gases emitted by human activity.

Scientists have long predicted that global climate change would result in effects such as sea ice loss, accelerated sea level rise, and longer, more intense heat waves.

The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published in 2021, discovered that human emissions of heat-trapping gases have already warmed the climate by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since pre-Industrial times (starting in 1750). 1 Within the next few decades, the global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 3 degrees Fahrenheit). These changes will have an impact on all parts of the globe.

What exactly is the distinction between climate change and global warming?

The severity of climate change effects will be determined by the trajectory of future human activities. More greenhouse gas emissions will result in more climate extremes and widespread harm to our planet. Those future effects, however, are dependent on the total amount of carbon dioxide we emit.

"Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts." by- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

SCENARIOS AND IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MALAYSIA

Malaysia has a tropical and humid climate. It is heavily influenced by the mountainous terrain and the complex land-sea interactions. Malaysia could be regarded as a safe haven from climate-related disasters. However, mild climate-related disasters have become more common in recent years. These refer to the occurrence of floods and droughts that had significant socioeconomic impacts on the country, whereas landslides caused by excessive rainfall and strong winds occurred in hilly areas and caused minimal damage in coastal areas. Forecasts based on climate modelling using 14 GCMs (Global Climate Models) show that Malaysia could experience temperature changes ranging from 0.7 to 2.6 degrees Celsius, as well as precipitation changes ranging from -30% to 30%.

Climate change has a direct impact on natural resources, infrastructure, and the environment, as well as on human health.

There are also some indirect damages that are expected to be severe  (Al-Amin and Leal Filho,2014). Climate change's potential impacts in Malaysia include, among other things, sea level rise, reduced crop yields, increased diseases among forest species, and biodiversity loss, erosion of shorelines, increased flood intensities, coral reef bleaching, increased incidences of disease, tidal inundation of coastal areas, decreased water availability, loss of biodiversity, and more droughts (Haliza, 2009).

TEMPERATURE

Unlike the global mean temperature, which shows significant increases in the early and late twentieth centuries and a slight cooling in the middle of the century, the annual mean temperature in most of the southern hemisphere shows significant increases in the early and late twentieth centuries and a slight cooling in the middle of the century.

Over the last century, the Asian region has steadily grown (Folland et al., 2001).

The ongoing decrease in the diurnal temperature range is one of the most significant climate change phenomena (DTR). Because the daily minimum temperature rose faster than the daily maximum temperature.

Malaysia has relatively uniform temperatures throughout the year, with mean lowland temperatures ranging between 26°C and 28°C. Although the annual variation in daily mean temperature is small (about 2°C to 3°C),

The diurnal variation can be as much as 12°C. Malaysia is expected to become hotter by 2050, with temperatures rising by up to 1.5°C.

Higher temperature increases are recorded in Peninsular Malaysia

compared to East Malaysia when comparing the long term means obtained for

1961- 1990 and 1998-2007. An average temperature increase of 0.5°C to 1.5°C is

recorded in Peninsular Malaysia and 0.5°C to 1.0°C in East Malaysia. Western

Peninsular Malaysia experiences more significant rise in temperature when

compared to other regions in Malaysia (Malaysian Meteorological Department,

2009). 

HEAVY RAINFALL

Torrential rain frequently causes flash floods and landslides, resulting in natural disasters. One of the primary goals of climate change research is to determine whether there is a change in the frequency and strength of natural disasters heavy rainfall events. Due to data limitations, detailed analysis can only be performed for the last few decades. Manton et al. (2001) discovered a general decreasing trend in the number of rainy days (with at least 2 mm of rain) in Southeast Asia between 1961 and 1998. Malaysia can also expect more rainfall extremes, such as heavy rain during the wet season and a lack of rain during the dry season. This would result in higher high flows, which would mean more severe floods, and lower low flows, which would mean longer droughts 

HUMAN HEALTH

Climate change affects human health through a range of direct or indirect exposures. Directly through extreme events of fire, flooding and heat waves, while indirectly when climate affects some environmental parameters (Hanna and Spickett, 2011). Heat stress due to high temperature and humidity is an environmental and occupational hazard that can lead to chronic illnesses and even death, from the after effects of heat stroke (Adelakun et al., 1999). Working in hot environment increases the risk of health problems and the ability to perform work task, this increases accident risk and if prolonged lead to heat exhaustion or even heat stroke (IPCC 2007). Climate change poses serious implications for environmental, occupational health and safety. The effect of heat stroke is susceptible to both outdoor and indoor workers (Shanks and Papworth, 2001).

In Malaysia, very little work has been done on projecting potential impacts of climate change on health burdens. Hence, a direct impact could be deaths due to heat stress or respiratory diseases due to air pollution, while indirect effects could include increased food and water-borne diseases, resulting from changes in rainfall pattern. An Institute for Medical Research (IMR) model shows that high rainfall is required for high transmission of dengue. There could be an increase in vector-borne disease – such as malaria and dengue fever – as changes in

temperature will increase the availability of suitable breeding habitats for the vectors. For example, between Jan 1 and Aug 20 2016, a total of 71,590 dengue cases were reported in Malaysia with 162 deaths. The bulk of the cases were in the states of Selangor, Kelantan, Johor and Kuala Lumpur. Climate change would have a direct effect on vector distribution and consequently in diseases, such as, dengue, malaria, filariasis and Japanese encephalitis (JE) as well.

COASTEL AREAS

Coastal zones are particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Key concerns include sea level rise, land loss, changes in maritime storms and flooding, responses to sea level rise and implications for water resources. Sea level is rising around the world. In the last century, sea level rose 5 to 6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, because coastal lands there are subsiding. Higher temperatures are expected to further raise sea level expanding ocean water, melting mountain glaciers and small ice caps, and causing portions of Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets to melt. The IPCC estimates that the global average sea level will rise between 0.6 and 2 feet (0.18 to 0.59 meters) in the next century. The coastal areas are continuously put at risk because of the projected increase in siltation due to soil erosion. Serious soil erosion in degraded forest lands and watershed areas is expected to occur with projected increase in precipitation, especially during the wet season. Silted coastal areas will reduce seagrass beds and coral reefs, which are important components in maintaining diversity in coastal waters. Moreover, coral reefs will be adversely affected by sea level rise due to increase in water depth. Higher sea level will reduce the amount of light reaching the bottom of the sea where the corals are located Mangrove forests, habitats for numerous coastal organisms, would be severely affected by future changes in rainfall pattern, runoff, salinity and sediment deposition. Reduction of mangrove forests will likely affect the biodiversity of coastal species.  Moreover, climate change can lead to frequent occurrence of El Nino events and affect ocean currents, sea level, sea water temperature, salinity, wind speed and direction, strength of upwelling, the mixing layer thickness and predator response.